In Summer 2011, with the economy still staggering and job numbers stubbornly motionless, the idea of a challenger from the GOP beating President Obama in November 2012 did not seem like a far-fetched idea. Enter the GOP Primary Circus Show, a somewhat improved outlook in Europe, falling unemployment numbers, and the fight still ahead of Mitt Romney is getting tougher. It also does not help that Romney has invested heavily, while campaigning, on the narrative of President Obama’s inability to get the economy going again and the jobless numbers down.
Meanwhile, Romney has faced heavy fire from Newt Gingrich(despite his devotion to the 11th Commandment) and other GOP challengers during an historically unprecedented primary fight. Dismissed by some insiders as a long shot because of his Mormon religious faith, Romney has managed to use the groundwork laid by his campaign in 2008 to get a head start and work his way to head of the GOP pack.
But, contrary to the past, a dedicated portion of the Republican base has decided en masse not to align themselves behind the early front runner. In fact, it seemed at one point that the only qualification to get a surge in the polls was to not be named Mitt Romney. With wins in Florida and Nevada, it is all but inevitable that he will be the chosen candidate for the GOP in 2012.
A recent Washington Post/ABC Poll shows Obama gaining ground against Romney nationally. The nation’s economic outlook has went from being Obama’s weak point to a strong one:
If the election boils down to primarily the economy, each candidate will have a claim to that mantle. By 52 to 37 percent, more voters say that Obama “better understands the economic problems people in this country are having.”
The important question which remains is: Will GOP voters be motivated to turn out to vote for Romney in November? At his recent win in Nevada, voter turnout was only 33,000, which is 11,000 less than in 2008. Former New Hampshire governor John Sununu has a logical explanation for this: They are already satisfied with Romney as the front runner so they said ‘Fuck it’ and stayed home(can’t make this shit up):