Nate Silver’s 538 blog has been the target of much criticism from pundits this election cycle. Even that ass clown Joe Scarborough joined the fun and criticized Silver’s model as inaccurate heading into the November 6th election. This poll denialism was rampant among almost all right wing pundits. As we all now know, Silver’s prediction were right on the money, predicting 50 out of 50 states.

Now that the election is behind us, Nate Silver analyses all the pollsters and created a ranking list. Not surprisingly, Gallup and Rasmussen are far down the list. They were both showing Mitt Romney likely to defeat President Obama in the popular vote by several points. Unfortunately for them and their reputation, the opposite happened.

 

Nate Silver’s 2012 Pollster Accuracy Rankings:

 

 

Our method of evaluating pollsters has typically involved looking at all the polls that a firm conducted over the final three weeks of the campaign, rather than its very last poll alone. The reason for this is that some polling firms may engage in “herding” toward the end of the campaign, changing their methods and assumptions such that their results are more in line with those of other polling firms.

 

Read Nate Silver’s Complete Analysis of 2012 Pollsters Here